Recent Form and Trends

* The 2016 race was run at Gowran Park

Trends

Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 7
Price – 5 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 11/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 8 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Kilbegnet Novice Chase , 12/12 winners ran within the last 62 days
4/12 winners ran in the Ballybrit Novice Chase (Galway) on their last run, 1 of the 4 won, 2 placed
Previous Course Form – 5/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Roscommon, 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Roscommon
Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 7 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 10/12 had at least 2 previous wins over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 4/12 winners were rated 138 or higher (8/12 didn’t have a chase rating yet)
Graded Wins – 3/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 12/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

Future Form

Trends

Next Run –
3 of the last 12 winners won on their next run after the Kilbegnet Novice Chase, 1/12 placed on their next run
5/12 winners ran in the Buck House Novice Chase (Punchestown) on their next run, 2 of the 5 won, 1 placed

Rest of The Season Runs –
10 of the last 12 winners ran in at least 3 more races that season
4/12 won at least 1 more race that season, 6/12 placed in at least 1 more race that season

Cheltenham Festival Run That Season –
3/12 winners ran in the Arkle Chase at the next Cheltenham Festival, 0 of the 3 won, 1 placed
2/12 winners ran in the Grand Annual at the next Cheltenham Festival, 0 of the 2 won, 0 placed