Recent Form and Trends

* The 2022 race was abandoned due to a frozen track

Trends

Age – 11 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6
Price – 7 of the last 11 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 11/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 8 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Noel Novices Chase, 9/11 winners ran within the last 41 days
Previous Course Form – 9/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Ascot, 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Ascot
Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 9/11 had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Chase Form – 9/11 winners had at least 1 previous chase run, 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 8/11 winners were rated 143 or higher
Graded Wins – 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 9/11 winners had at least 1 run that season, 8/11 winners had at least 1 win that season

Future Form

Trends

Next Run –
2 of the last 11 winners won on their next run after the Noel Novices Chase, 2/11 placed on their next run
2/11 winners ran in the Altcar Novices Chase (Haydock) on their next run, 0 of the 2 won, 1 placed
2/11 winners ran in the Dipper Novices Chase (Cheltenham) on their next run, 1 of the 2 won, 1 placed
2/11 winners ran in the Scilly Isles Novices Chase (Sandown) on their next run, 0 of the 2 won, 0 placed
2/11 winners ran in the Lightning Novices Chase (Lingfield) on their next run, 0 of the 2 won, 0 placed

Rest of The Season Runs –
8 of the last 11 winners ran in at least 2 more races that season
5/11 won at least 1 more race that season, 3/11 placed in at least 1 more race that season

Cheltenham Festival Run That Season –
5/11 winners ran in the Turners Novices Chase at the next Cheltenham Festival, 0 of the 5 won, 2 placed